Research note · TerraNova Capital Partners · H2 2026 · counts live from this site
The State of Private Credit — H2 2026
A research note from TerraNova Capital Partners, built on the TerraNova Capital Partners lender dataset. Every count below is pulled from the live dataset and defined in the methodology note.
The map, as it stands
1,557
active funds researched
10
debt structures covered
Coverage spans 10 deal types (funds commonly carry several structures, so counts overlap):
| Senior | 1,066 funds |
| Mezzanine | 596 funds |
| Project Finance | 547 funds |
| Asset-Based Lending | 364 funds |
| Unitranche | 328 funds |
| Equipment Finance | 296 funds |
| Bridge | 278 funds |
| Real Estate Debt | 234 funds |
| Revolving Credit | 187 funds |
| Venture Debt | 87 funds |
What the data exposes: the middle-market coverage gap
Among the 232 whose check size is confirmed from a published source, the median range is $5M to $50M. The center of gravity of private credit supply is aimed at the middle market, not at the nine-figure deals that anchor most commentary on the asset class.
The large multi-strategy platforms publish wide ranges that, on paper, span the $5M–$50M segment. In practice, a $30M unitranche competes for attention inside a fund whose average ticket runs an order of magnitude larger. The funds that genuinely own the $5M–$50M band are the specialists: single-strategy shops whose published range brackets the borrower’s ask tightly, where a $20M check is a core position rather than a rounding error. On live mandates, the lenders who return the first call are rarely the ones with the widest ranges.
What this means for a $5M–$100M raise
- Count your real lender set, not the famous set. Of 1,557 active funds, the shortlist that fits a given deal on size, structure, sector, and geography typically runs to dozens — and it rarely resembles the conference-circuit list.
- Range fit is the first screen. A fund whose band is built around your check size tends to fit better than a megafund that merely spans it. Treat flagged estimates as provisional until a sourced figure confirms them.
- Reachability is the second screen. A perfect-fit fund without a named deal-team contact converts poorly. Confirm who you would reach at each fund before the process starts.
Methodology note
- “Researched” means each active fund profile is compiled from public sources — fund websites, SEC filings, deal announcements, team pages. An automated pipeline proposes changes daily; some are applied automatically — by fixed rules for SEC filings and lender websites, and by an AI reviewer for high-confidence items — and the rest are reviewed by the team.
- “Estimate” means the fund discloses no check-size range, so we modeled one from fund AUM and comparable lenders. Estimates are flagged “~ (est.)” wherever they appear, carry less weight than sourced ranges in scoring, and are replaced the moment a sourced or lender-confirmed figure arrives. 171 of 1,557 ranges are currently estimates.
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